*Written by Arthur and ICO Drops community
When something sounds reasonable, doesn't mean that it is so..
This conclusion I made after a huge number of countless predictions. It's my attempt to shove the current chaos with crypto market in any framework. So please do read up the info below, but as they sing in that song "Don't believe me just watch".
Before I can make an offer on where we could end up, I'd like to propose few empirical ideas (i.e. constants).
First, is that market is cyclical. There never was a case in history when all the market went down to 0 and never been back still.
From personal experience I've heard two types of these stories: One of them is "Tulip mania" and second is related to some sort of collectable toys back in 1990's.
Recently there has been a lot of idiots that appear to be shouting out loud, where are those Tulips gone and Bitcoin will have same exit-scam. Don't get me wrong, I mean how can people compare Bitcoin with "Tulip mania"? One has to be crazy to draw the lines of comparison considering the fact that Bitcoin has the advantage amongst all of the financial money in value ever existed in historical trends that existed up until today. So let us presume that the crypto-market will not go to zero and the chance of returning to ATH is high, although we do not know the time frame. But If you believe that the market will collapse, then may I ask you what are you doing here? Comon' seriously guys?
Second,If we see a promising forecast in media or those who make impact on it ( like Tom Lee or McAfee) , then be certain that it will not be like that. History shows us that the majority is mistaken... This presumption will allow us to shortcut the circle of possible outcome scenarios..
If you have been fed by stories such as Bitcoin to drop down to 1k, then you can cross out such scenario from your head out of all possible..
Let me remind you, whats the key event that happened in October? We've broken key support level at 6K. And notice whats happened? All of a sudden everyone started talking about a long term bearish trend..so the chances are high that this will not happen.
In a relation to whats been said above one can draw the following concluding presumptions:
"When some thought gets into you're head ( for ex SELL Bitcoin ASAP now ) the same though appears in heads of other investors"
What to do in this case, you would be asking yourself right now? One thing to remember.. do not follow "the fight or flight pattern", in other words do not do things in an impulsive manner, take your time... focus.... think..... look around you and think again.
Lets place our bets
The most effective scenario that I heard is Halving. Just imagine for a second if you were on the same market for several bearish cycles. Most likely outcome would that you would already made a fortune.. managed to work out how things work on the market... and would be a fairly descent player that you'd learn to use the Halving schedule as your tool or an instrument as a means for a plot to destroy the majority. To me this scenario has appeared not fairly frequently so lets use it as the main one.....!
Graph Illustration "Halvng Scenaio"
In accordance to this scenario we can feel the lowest point within 5-6 months. We will get back to Halving approximately by May (2020) and then the growth is expected. However, there is one fundamental problem that sits at the core… People are trying to stuck in the future in the history of the past… and as I've mentioned before that may not necessarily happen. Remember me writing about the November that was the most profitable? The complete opposite happened.. November was less profitable month of all 2018.
So lets consider the third constant..
The historical data seem to have much less influence than it seems. Consequently, the probability is high that this is going to be something different that ever before. From the examples illustrated previously we can recall to November that was historically the most profitable month in history. Therefore, we are left with no option but to gather everything we know so far without the prejudice including the Haling itself: S what do we know in summary:
- In the Q1 first quarter of 2019 we've got at least 3 major events happening: Bakkt, Futures,
- The market is massively oversold and the players are not having interest in it. We can state that from the observations made on the development of infrastructure and the sums invested. (Although the media seem to counterargue the point that in Q1 of 2019 Goldman Sachs will be come up with the following slogan"sorry we've been here since year 2013 and we've been fed with the stories to put your mind at ease)
- The live insfrastructure that has been there in 2017 coudn't be adequetely stable to make enough funds for all of those investors who are trying to get into the insdustry. Why? Because the market remains at the low point of liquidation even for the massive players in it.
So therefore, we can expect to have something in Q1 of 2019. What will happen next will depend on what will happen before then.If we will fall before the launch of institutional products than we can expect stable growth afterwards. If we are growing and expanding rapidly then we two scenarios are likely to appear "Buy on rumours" Sell on news". Well i don't think there's much happening on the rumours, so I personally tend to believe that the first scenario has more chances of happening.
Few remarks have to be added to the scenario number two: During the winter when we were expecting a listing the token managed to rise to the listing on the trade platform, thereafter it has grown only until the listing. Recently however it has been growing and at the same time merges together few days before the listing. Do you know why that happens? Cuz no one wants to be the last person to board the train which is why everyone decided to do things little more differently.
However, this can work vise versa as well as soon as we'll be able to see few more announcements that will cause an ultimate trigger effect to buy. The quick thinkers will certainly gain from that as if they will be thinking "I'm gonna buy it a little earlier, I'll be a little damn smarter". Then there is a question to be asked here: Will this turn into massive movement that is capable to lay out the whole market, or will this be an exit pump? I'll leave it up to you to decide.
To make it simple lets narrow and mark all of this to the point "no the same as usual", so that we can move the Malving scenario to the right direction " quicker - slower" as oppose to what it was before. They'll reschedule it, delay it, etc…there are however lots of arrows to point to the Q1 of 2019.. lots..
The most unexpected - all the plans are getting cancelled and the market is laid out. Didn't see that one coming, did you? :)
Is this an end for Ethereum?
No, and the last arguing point here was the fact that 4k technicians bought tickets to the last Devcon, however the original number of people who wanted to buy those were 40k as the Devcon has been earned its reputation as a currency which users can use to pay for good and services. Its got a variety of developers and holders working on it as well as strong network effect, significant trade use.. no other coin has those features except BTC.
Ethereum however does not such as pleasant behaviour on a market trends, as it is unstable in fulfilling its full circulation due to its weakness.
Regarding everything else out there.. don't mean to spoil you however I've come to conclusion that everything that's outside of BTC is casino. If you are well diversified, there always gonna be a situation where some "shitcoin" comes up and ruins everything. That's just to say there are chances out there.,, but there aren't a lot of them left.
What is left to do now?
Now may I have your attentions please: "Will the Real Slim Shady Please Stand Up??? A rule that I've managed to come up with :" If you have managed to sell on ATH, reardless of where the price has gone -you've done everything right"If you have bought a good coin.
I think I've answered your question by connecting two answers in one, the first one is "everyone thinks the same as everyone else" and the second as we concluded " we have to buy now, if you ain't got a fortune in your wallet - dont sell."
Yes there are no guarantee, however I can be certain about one thing: If I follow this one rule, I will be ahead of many of those who don't :) So do it )
Are we gonna go after 1k? Don't know.. but if Im gonna sell right now, ill be so unlucky and end up on the bottom..
Why, well because you have to be a fool to think that "So we've settled for 80 %, let me sell right now and buy later"
Can you imagine Warren Buffet sat there thinking"Should I buy now and resell later"?? This example proves the point all along. either be clever about this.. base your decision on the fact, do not hestitate, dont panic and make hundred per cent effort to distract yourself from fear.. Only then you will be strong enough to make the right decision whether to go buy or sit back and wait for the next chance…
Here's a story from where I learnt.. 4 months ago, Ethereum was worth 400 and that was considered low. If I'd had sold it back then then I would have breached the main rule of life. Never take the risk you're not prepared to take.
Talk about "rebuy option" these I can say are very organic thoughts.. I mean let me tell you, ever wondered why people sell and buy at a different price? Because the seller bets all options on whats gonna happen at the bottom, whereas buyer places all his bets on whats gonna happen above the average of the normal price.. Then they engage in a game where one is trying to outsmart the other, simple as that. So be mindful guys, when that magical moment of buying will represent itself, everyone will suddenly be whispering your ears that everything will go above the average price.. Suddenly, you'll start to believing that.
I can promise you it'll be same kind of stories that we were told in 2017 where the BTC is going to be equal to 100k by the end of the year 2018, except the plus sign will be replaced with minus sign.
Hey, thanks for reading so far…So to make a final sets of remarks in this article I'd like to illustrate the end of the market for BTC to all of those who are chasing the bottom prices.
I marked out the candles and volume for the last bull week. And what kind of reversal are we seeing there? Nothing. At the previous correction, the volume was higher and the candles were more aggressive. Will we draw a clear bottom now? Will we have obvious accumulation? Nobody knows. But I know one thing smart money will try to do everything possible so that you been last who understand that we are on bull market again.
The main fact is 95% discounts for Ethereum and 85% for BTC. Perhaps this is the right time to start shopping.
I want to believe that engines are already heated and Big boys in suits are running around them, rubbing the rocket and almost nothing is shown to us.
The only question is whether it is the road to hell or we`re truly witnessing preparations to get to he moon.
Happy new year guys!!!